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Health

Can you trust your sleep tracker? Here’s what the science says

Can you trust your sleep tracker? Here’s what the science says

Where do you stand on sleep technology? Some people love data and feel it gives them access to patterns in the body they can’t see or feel. Others prefer a simpler approach and just ask themselves how they slept and how they feel. For many, the avalanche of data and constant monitoring breeds anxiety, fuels perfectionism or creates a sense of failure when numbers show red.

Whatever your position, the wearable sleep tracker market has exploded – it’s valued at USD$13–17 billion in 2023 and is projected to hit approximately USD$51 billion by 2030–2034. This shows genuine widespread public adoption or addiction

Globally, 36 per cent of adults monitor their sleep via a wearable or smartphone, increasing to 60 per cent among Gen Z.

Sleep trackers serve different purposes for different people. They help those who enjoy data and want to optimise health and longevity, and are particularly helpful when something feels off and you can’t quite put your finger on it.

For anyone feeling they are falling short of their physical, cognitive, emotional or social potential, a short tracking period is worth it.

Perception gap

People’s perceptions of their sleep don’t often match reality. 

Some insist they sleep just fine. Yet, when you track their sleep, they barely get any deep sleep, wake up feeling terrible but attribute their physical and mental health concerns to a constellation of other factors. Others say they ‘didn’t sleep a wink’, while the data shows they actually got decent rest. 

This perception gap matters tremendously. What you believe about your sleep predicts mood, motivation and even cognitive and athletic performance outcomes, sometimes more strongly than the objective data itself.

This is one reason I suggest using a validated sleep-tracking device, at least temporarily, to establish an objective baseline. 

You can’t change what you don’t measure

Be aware that some devices under or overestimate sleep stages, which can erode trust in wearables. 

Choose a device with published validation against polysomnography, the clinical gold standard. Look up recent peer-reviewed comparisons for reliability and error profiles across devices.

Some devices sit squarely in the wellness space, while others move into clinical territory. Validation studies now compare popular wearables against polysomnography and ECG, often finding reasonable accuracy for total sleep time, resting heart rate and multi-night trends, some with weaker performance for exact sleep stages. 

Benefits of sleep trackers

Sleep trackers come in various forms, including wristbands, watches, rings, eye masks, bed mats and body straps, all designed to monitor your sleep stages and provide objective data about your night.

Some systems do not touch the body at all. Examples include bedside devices, which use low-power radar and microphones to track breathing patterns, snoring, and movement from across the room. Under-mattress sensors sit under the mattress and read tiny shifts in pressure from heartbeats and respiration. These options suit people who dislike wearing devices, have sensitive skin or work in roles where jewellery or watches create safety risks. 

Contact-free systems often help with monitoring sleep in older adults, people with dementia and babies, because nothing attaches to skin or fingers during the night. Data quality still depends on placement, mattress type and room noise, so treat the numbers as trends over weeks rather than precise clinical measurements from a single night.

Sleep First by Dr Jemma King

Learn more in the book Sleep First by Dr Jemma King.

Insight, behavioural change and accountability

People may be blissfully unaware of insufficient deep or REM sleep and misattribute mood, cognitive lapses, frequent illness, cravings and training plateaus to other causes. Wearables surface objective patterns that help prompt behaviour change.

People know alcohol, late caffeine and late-night doomscrolling are harmful to sleep, but seeing cold hard ‘in-the-red’ data prompts action and builds discipline and accountability.

It’s like having someone who really cares about you, always by your side, gently nudging you to stop drinking and get to bed.

Potential issues

Individuals need to ensure they understand their privacy rights and are comfortable with the trade-offs between privacy and the benefits.

In any program I run, I make sure that management has no access to individual data, only de-identified, aggregated, group-level insights. But some companies offer subsidised trackers to employees. Trackers sometimes double as productivity monitors. Insurers are exploring premium adjustments based on sleep quality. Law enforcement has accessed sleep and location data in investigations. 

Your device knows when you are home, awake and often where you went. Clarify who sees what, how data is stored, and whether you can opt out.

Accuracy also gets messy when you factor in different bodies. Pulse oximetry sensors tend to overestimate blood oxygen in people with darker skin, tattoos covering the sensor, cold hands, or poor circulation. Many consumer wearables use the same optical tech for oxygen saturation and HRV, so if you’ve got darker skin or circulation issues, treat those SpO2 and HRV numbers as rough estimates. Bring concerning patterns to a clinician who knows about these limitations.

Another wearable quirk to be aware of is that firmware and algorithm updates can change scoring rules overnight. After a major update, your sleep score might suddenly look different for no biological reason. Give it a few weeks to establish a new baseline rather than panicking that your sleep tanked compared to last year.

The most important principle: Your data is most useful when compared against your own baseline, not others’. Track for two to four weeks to establish personal normals, then act on sustained deviations rather than isolated readings.

Dr Jemma King

This article was written by Dr Jemma King, a behavioural scientist, sleep researcher and expert in emotional intelligence and performance under stress. She holds a PhD in Human Behaviour, First Class Honours in Business Management, and a Bachelor of Science majoring in Psychology.

Dr King is a Research Fellow at The University of Queensland School of Psychology and a specialist external advisor to McKinsey & Company.

Her book, Sleep First, is out now.